Friday, March 30, 2012

Point/Counterpoint Result: Rosewater wins Targeted Draw debate, but loses issue

The Magic: the Gathering website's latest idea is to give the public insight into the process through debates about issues. This week, the topic was whether the default setting for a card that allows a player to draw cards should be "You draw N cards" or "Target player draws N cards." Zac Hill took the first side of the argument, while Mark Rosewater took the other side. While Mark defended his side of the argument more deftly and concisely, it was not enough to persuade me of the merits of the position.

Mark summarized his argument this way:

  • Newer players have to learn the word "target" to play the game, so forcing them to encounter it slightly more often is good for them.
  • Multiplayer play is an important and growing part of Magic. Templating cards to make them multiplayer friendly is crucial to evolving the game to where it wants to be played.
  • To help Magic crystallize with newer players, it is key that we build into the game the hooks needed for them to emotionally bond.
  • Evidence points to the fact that newer players have no problem figuring out what targeted draw does and having good complexity hidden in the game out of their sight makes Magic a better overall game.
  • Let me take each of these and explain why I think they fall short of the goal:
    Newer players have to learn the word "target" to play the game, so forcing them to encounter it slightly more often is good for them.
    This is true, as far as it goes, but it doesn't mean that we need to apply it to card draw.  There are already several game effects that are targeted, such as damage, healing, power/toughness modifiers, and direct destruction (see Doom Blade and Naturalize). These things are targeted, for the most part, because they need to be so. In order to create a card like Shock, that only deals damage to one creature or player, choosing which one to affect is ably dealt with by the rules for targeting.

    Card draw, as a general rule (and that is what we are dealing with when deciding the default setting for a card) does not need to be targeted. It is simple enough to say "You draw two cards", and players will understand that. To try to accomplish the same thing for many other cards, look at the Portal version of Alluring Scent. This makes it harder to understand, not easier. Just because many cards need to be targeted does not mean that every card that can be targeted should be.

    Multiplayer play is an important and growing part of Magic. Templating cards to make them multiplayer friendly is crucial to evolving the game to where it wants to be played.
    The need to make friendlier cards for multiplayer play is there, and designers need to make sure that such cards are present as each new set comes out. But Zac missed the boat when he compared the targeted draw to a card that reads, "Choose one—Draw two cards, or lose the game. If your opponent has two or fewer cards in his or her library, and does not have hexproof, instead you win the game." First, the analogy fails to capture the functionality of allowing a teammate or opponent to draw in multiplayer in order to get a card that helps your position. Second, even in a duel, there were decks such as Turbo Zvi (see http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtgcom/daily/bd172 for decklist) that won by repeated application of a small targeted card draw. Thus, the analogy fails to hold, as it doesn't take into account these potential scenarios.

    Back to our discussion about targeted draws as a default. Targeted drawing at the same cost as non-targeted drawing is strictly better. Thus, we should impose a cost on it, whether it comes increased mana cost, restricting it to sorceries (and allowing non-targeted card drawing to be instant), or restricting targeted card drawing from common. Making the non-targeted draw the default is a means of costing similar to this last option. If the targeted draw is needed for a set, there is nothing stopping designers from adding it. Doing so, however, should be seen as the complexity increase it is.

    One other thing to note about multiplayer is that most forms of it are Constructed, not Limited. This means that getting good multiplayer cards into sets is less of a priority at common. Blue Sun's Zenith does its job at creating targeted draws for multiplayer, even though it is rare. It's only in formats like Two-Headed Giant Limited that non-targeted draw as a default limits how much of it is present, but if a set needs targeted draw, it can be added.

    To help Magic crystallize with newer players, it is key that we build into the game the hooks needed for them to emotionally bond.
    This is a great point, but a bit shortsighted. It's great to have moments where players realize strategy is more complex than they imagined, but the defaults should be the minimum complexity the card needs to function. There are already such moments once a targeted card draw is added to a set, and once that moment is reached, it's good. But there are other ways to make such moments: blocking strategy, triggering fateful hour by striking yourself with a red damage spell, etc. and these are all from the most basic versions of the cards.

    Everyone acknowledges that the non-default targeted card draw version can be made if needed. And when such a card is printed, the person who gets it can use it just as Mark suggested. The chances of getting it are lower, and so the realization may take longer, but it is still there.


    Evidence points to the fact that newer players have no problem figuring out what targeted draw does and having good complexity hidden in the game out of their sight makes Magic a better overall game.
    Every card creates an experience. Default cards are more prevalent than others, and once players recognize the default settings, they become the standard by which future cards are judged. If the default is the simplest card of its type, the new cards with the option are seen as "upgrades" and are favorably judged by the public for it. If the default is the "better" version, the non-default version is seen as a "downgrade" and the public gets upset at being screwed.


    We have seen this before. Shock was a lightning rod for criticism until it had been around for a few years, as it was a downgrade of Lightning Bolt. Then Shock became the default, so the two years of Lightning Bolt's return (in Magic 2010 and 2011) were seen as a positive for Red. The same howling happened with Counterspell vs. Cancel. But there has been no such emnity over cards like Ashcoat Bear and Ajani's Pridemate, which are better than the default Runeclaw Bear and Silvercoat Lion.


    The final analysis is this: Players may have to learn how to target, but that doesn't mean that everything that can target should. Multiplayer cards need to be made, but they don't have to clutter up the defaults to do it. The game needs emotional hooks, but making everything an emotional hook is not the answer.and while people may figure out what the targeted card draw does, making them the default sets the public up for disappointment when the non-targeted versions are printed out of necessity. So while Mark Rosewater may have made the more compelling arguments, they were not enough to win this heart to his position.

    Saturday, February 18, 2012

    Heresy the Second: DCI Tournament Procedures Can Improve

    In the years since my last article on this (published in 2005), two of the changes I suggested have actually been tested. To help shape the discussion, here are three questions to get you thinking about the issues to come:

    1. Under what circumstances can a person only lose two games in Swiss and finish behind a person who lost six or more games?

    2. If you get a bye in the first round, then sweep your next three opponents two games to none, lose the fifth round in three games, and win the sixth in three games, how many more matches must you sweep to get a game win percentage over 80%?

    3. List the benefits of finishing first in the Swiss portion of a tournament, and which, if any, also apply to the person who finishes second as opposed to third in the Swiss portion of a tournament?

    Take as much time as you need to think about the answers, and feel free to revise your answers as you go along. I'll post the answers later.

    If you have ever been to a tournament, you know that you play matches against people, and the results are recorded and used to determine what happens from round to round, but have you ever thought about why certain things happen one way and not another? I would not expect most people to have done this, but I have, and here are some observations that I have made.

    Section 1: Game, Set, Match
    The first observation is that game records for elimination events are completely irrelevant, and at Swiss, they are almost irrelevant, given the current format for scoring Swiss events. Currently, players are ranked by match record, with a player getting 3 points for a win or a bye, and 1 point for a draw. If there is a tie for an important spot, the computer calculates tiebreakers. In order, these are:

    Opponents' Match Win Percentage: This is found by taking each opponent's match points (not counting those earned in byes) and dividing it by a number equal to 3 times the number of opponents that person actually played. If any opponent's match win percentage at this point is less than 1/3, it counts as 1/3 for this purpose. These are then averaged to determine the final value, expressed as a percentage rounded to 4 decimal places (63.2984%, for example).

    Player's Game Win Percentage: This is found by taking the player's game points (calculated the same way as match points) and dividing it by a number equal to three times the number of games played.

    Opponents' Game Win Percentage: This works like Opponents' Match Win Percentage, except game wins are used.

    As game records only impact the second and third tiebreakers (which, for almost any event over 30 players, goes unused), the primary incentive to actually finish a match when you are a game ahead is either the satisfaction of finishing, or the threat of a penalty for slow play. In play, match record is far more important than game record.

    This leads to the first question:
    1. Under what circumstances can a person only lose two games in Swiss and finish behind a person who lost six or more games?

    The answer is, when both those losses occur against the same opponent. In that case, the person in question has lost a match, and is behind every player who has not yet lost a match, even if they have lost far more games.

    Does it make sense that a person who goes 15-2 in games over a 7-round Swiss ranks behind someone who went 14-7 just because both of the first person's game losses occurred against the same opponent, while the second player has managed to spread the losses evenly over all seven matches? Does it matter if either or both of those game losses were due to mana problems? Is one extra match win really worth more than a 21.5% advantage in game win percentage?

    Now that we're dealing with the game win percentage statistic, let's look at the next question:
    2. If you get a bye in the first round, then sweep your next three opponents two games to none, lose the fifth round two games to one, and win the sixth in three games (again, 2-1), how many more matches must you sweep to get a game win percentage over 80%?

    The answer is two. At the point of the question, you have 27 game points. (4 match wins with 2 game wins each, plus one match loss with a game win means 9 total game wins. At 3 game points per win, that's 27.) There are 36 game points total (12 total games played), and each sweep adds 6 to each column. The value passes 80% at 39/45, which is two matches away.

    I bring this up because, at the point of the question, the match win percentage, not counting byes, is 80%. So why is the game record only 75% at this point? Because a match that is won by a two game to none sweep only contributes two games to the percentage, while a match that goes to a third game contributes three. Add a third game win to each sweep and we have a game record of 80% now, not two rounds from now.

    As was established before, this is a minor consideration in the current format, so it hasn't had much impact. Even so, it is still a quirk of the system that needs to be acknowledged.

    Section 2: Swiss Folly
    Tournament players, ask yourselves: If you can guarantee that you will finish 5th in the Swiss by taking a draw in the final round, but playing would mean that you finish either 1st or 9th, do you take the draw? I can hear all of you saying that you'll take the draw in a heartbeat, and some of you are looking for documents to sign to that effect. For those who don't understand why, I'll break it down here. But at this point, it's time to deal with our last question:

    3. List the benefits of finishing first in the Swiss portion of a tournament with a Top 8 final, and which, if any, also apply to the person who finishes second as opposed to third in the Swiss portion of a tournament with a Top 8 final?

    The seeding for the final matches is based on Swiss finish (1st plays 8th, 2nd plays 7th, 3rd plays 6th and 4th plays 5th) in both Limited and Constructed. When Rochester Draft (Limited) was used for the finals of Pro Tours (or Pro Tour Qualifiers), the person finishing 1st in the Swiss could choose who drafted first. Now that the default draft option is Booster Draft, even that limited benefit is no longer present. However, when considering the final standings for a Professional-level event, such as a National Championship, Grand Prix, or Pro Tour, the person finishing higher in the Swiss counted as finishing in the higher position among those who were eliminated in the quarterfinals or semifinals.

    As the above indicates, there are some benefits to finishing high in the Swiss. But as the first paragraph of this section indicates, most people won't play for them if they risk a losing a Top 8 finish that would otherwise be assured. This indicates that the benefits above aren't all that beneficial, at least in comparison to the risk involved.

    For those who despise the idea of intentionally taking a draw for a match instead of playing it out, here are two of the factors involved. First, game wins are all but meaningless, so you can't compensate for a match loss by sweeping the remaining games. And second, there isn't that much difference between 1st in the Swiss and 8th, so there's no reason to take the risk of playing a match when a draw gets you into Top 8. Add these together, and you get the general "admission" among judges that intentional draws are here to stay.

    Section 3: What do we do now?
    But is it really such a foregone conclusion? If you limit yourself to the current system, I might have to agree. But that is begging the question of whether we should consider a change. If such change is considered, here are two places I would look:

    1. Include Game Performance in Primary Scoring. In the olden days (before the millennium), I read of some reports from British tournaments that divided the match points based on the outcome of the match. I would modify it a bit (using a 12-point system instead of the 10-point system described) and score accordingly. If a person wins the match 2-0 with no draws, that player would get the full 12 points, and the loser would get 0. If there were any drawn games, the winner would only get 11, and the loser would get 1. a 2-1 win with no draws would score 10 for the winner and 2 for the loser, draws would change it to a 9-3 split. A 1-0 win (with any number of draws) would score 8 for the winner and 4 for the loser, and a drawn match would provide a 6-6 split. Although this gives more credit for a draw (awarding half the match points available instead of 1/3 now), it also works to separate scores even from the opening round.

    2. Give a play advantage to finishing higher in the Swiss. Instead of making Swiss finish an afterthought, why not offer a real incentive to finishing higher in the Swiss? The one I'm leaning toward now is to award a game win on each Top 8 match to the player who finished higher in the Swiss. If that were the situation, would the choice be so clear to take the draw for the guaranteed 5th place if playing could get you the Swiss lead, and a bonus game win in all your Top 8 matches?

    3. Base all or part of the prize fund on the Swiss rankings, with the rest based on Top 8 performance. This is now common practice at some events where invitations are involved. The organizer is permitted to pay out the non-invite prizes based on Swiss standings, and have the players play only for the invitations. Such a policy needs to be spelled out in advance.

    4. Give the higher seed the first play/draw decision in the match. This was used in 2010's Pro Tour Amsterdam as an experiment. We will await the results to see if this becomes official tournament policy.

    Other options are available, but the need to consider the tournament structure as it stands is there.